Fernando Alonso is now the odds-on favourite to replace Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes in 2025, according to new data.

Hamilton will leave Mercedes at the end of the 2024 season to join Ferrari, having opted not to exercise the second year of his two-year contract with the Silver Arrows.

That leaves a vacancy at Mercedes, with team-mate George Russell contracted until at least the end of 2025.

Carlos Sainz, who will be replaced by Hamilton at Ferrari, was a major early contender to essentially swap seats with the seven-time world champion, but he has also been heavily linked with joining Audi ahead of the German car manufacturer taking over the Sauber team in 2026.

Williams driver Alex Albon has also been linked, but his previous ties with Red Bull – amid reports that they will offer him a contract to replace Sergio Perez from 2025 – makes completing a deal challenging for Mercedes.

And 17-year-old Kimi Antonelli, a Mercedes junior driver, is also a potential contender once completing his maiden F2 season, in a move that would carry some hallmarks of Hamilton’s own path to the McLaren team for his debut F1 season in 2007.

But according to OLBG, it is now Aston Martin driver Alonso – who was Hamilton’s team-mate in 2007 – that is now odds-on favourite at 8/11 to take over from the Brit.

Now 42 years of age, the two-time world champion is still operating at an incredibly high level, securing eight podiums in a competitive Aston Martin car last season.

He finished in fourth in the Drivers’ Championship, although would have been competing with Perez and Hamilton for second had Aston Martin not fallen behind other teams in terms of performance mid-season.

Alonso has a contract with his current team until at least the end of 2024, which could open the door to a surprise Mercedes move for 2025.

Here are the current odds for which driver will replace Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes in 2025.


Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin) – 8/11

Alex Albon (Williams) – 7/2

Carlos Sainz (Ferrari) – 5/1

Mick Schumacher (Mercedes, reserve) – 7/1

Esteban Ocon (Alpine) – 10/1

Kimi Antonelli (Prema, F2) – 14/1

Sebastian Vettel (Retired) – 18/1

Valtteri Bottas (Sauber) – 25/1

Lewis Hamilton has previously dropped a clue about moving to Ferrari amid Mercedes exit rumours.

On Thursday morning, the world of Formula 1 was shaken to its core after it was reported that Hamilton is set to join Ferrari ahead of the 2025 season.

It has been claimed that although the Brit signed a multi-year contract with Mercedes in August 2023, there is an exit clause which will allow him to join Ferrari in 2025.

Hamilton has previously been linked with a move to Ferrari before it was confirmed he had signed a new deal with Mercedes.

Speaking back in 2022, the seven-time F1 world champion spoke about the prospect of driving for the famous Italian team.

He told Corriere della Sera: “Of course, it would be nice to race for Ferrari during my career, but things happen because of a reason.”

At the time, he quickly stated that he is loyal to Mercedes, he added: “Mercedes is my family. I will always be a Mercedes driver, just like Stirling Moss.”

If Hamilton’s move to Ferrari is confirmed, he is set to drive alongside Charles Leclerc, who signed a new deal with the team last month.

Leclerc said: “I’m very pleased to know that I will be wearing the Scuderia Ferrari race suit for several more seasons to come.

“To race for this team has been my dream since I was three years old: I used to watch the Monaco Grand Prix from the window of a friend’s apartment at Ste. Devote corner and I would always look out for the red cars. This team is my second family ever since I joined the Ferrari Driver Academy in 2016 and we have achieved a lot together, fighting through thick and thin over the past five years.

He continued: “However, I believe the best is yet to come and I can’t wait for this season to start, to make further progress and be competitive at every race. My dream remains that of winning the World Championship with Ferrari and I’m sure that in the years ahead, we will enjoy great times together and make our fans happy.”

Lewis Hamilton could be set for a shock move to Ferrari ahead of the 2025 season, it has been reported.

The last two seasons have been tough for Hamilton as Mercedes continued to struggle with the new Formula 1 regulations.

In 2022, Hamilton failed to win a race in a season for the first time in his entire career.

That trend continued in 2023 as rival Max Verstappen eased to his third successive F1 world title.

Despite signing a new deal with Mercedes back in August 2023, Hamilton’s future has now been thrown up in the air.

According to Motorsport.com, seven-time world champion Hamilton could leave Mercedes next season.

The report stated that although it is unclear if a contract has been signed, negotiations are said to be at an advanced stage.

Hamilton signed a new deal to drive for Mercedes for 2024 and 2025 but it has been claimed that there is an escape clause in his contract.

Speaking after signing his new deal, Hamilton said: “We dream every day of being the best and we have dedicated the past decade together to achieving that goal.

“Being at the top does not happen overnight or over a short period of time, it takes commitment, hard work and dedication and it’s been an honour to earn our way into the history books with this incredible team.”

He added: “We have never been hungrier to win. We have learnt from every success but also every setback. We continue to chase our dreams, we continue to fight no matter the challenge and we will win again.

“I’m grateful to the team who have supported me both on and off the track. Our story isn’t finished, we are determined to achieve more together and we won’t stop until we do.”

Fernando Alonso has aimed a dig at Formula one rival Lewis Hamilton after he announced a shock switch to Ferrari.

Hamilton announced he will be racing for Ferrari in 2025, ending an 11-year stint with Mercedes.

The seven-time world champion reportedly had a secret “escape” clause in his latest Mercedes deal, signed in August 2023.

He will therefore replace Carlos Sainz at Ferrari and partner Charles Leclerc.

Hamilton said driving in the red of Ferrari is a “childhood dream” but Alonso, his former teammate in 2007, is not quite having it.

Alonso and Hamilton had a huge fall-out many years ago, resulting in the Spaniard’s contract with McLaren being terminated by mutual consent.

But there is still a respect between the two and the 42-year-old, who has driven for Ferrari, believes it is a positive move for him.

He added: “I hope he enjoys the experience. I think it’s a very special team.

“But it’s more special when you win. It’s few years already [since] they have a very fast car and they were fighting for big things.

“Maybe Lewis can bring that extra to fight for the championship because the car is there.”

Hamilton’s switch could have something of a domino effect as his spot will open with Mercedes.

There is speculation that Alonso could be in the frame as Hamilton’s replacement with the Silver Arrows.

But the two-time Formula One world champion says there is no update on a potential move to Mercedes..

“I know the driver market has started earlier this year, then probably June or July, which is the normal timing, but this will not affect me at all, in terms of preparing for the season.

“We have very limited testing in Bahrain. I cannot think too much about the future right now. I will have to see and wait a few races. I’m aware of my situation, which is very unique.”

Gideon Canice

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